Off-Season Preview and Strategy

Reds finish 82-80 and 2 games out the wild card.  They finished a full 10 games behind the Brewers.  82 wins was a 20 game improvement over the 2022 Reds.  I believe the Reds will be a 90 win team in 2024. Even if they acquired no one !!   Because of how little time we had all some of best players in 2023.

McLain - 89 games - 55%
Elly - 98 games - 60%
ECS - 63 games - 39%
Marte - 35 games - 22%

If you set 32 games for a starting pitcher this is what we got from our current starters

Greene - 69%
Ashcraft - 81%
Abbott - 65%
Williamson - 71%
Lodolo - 22%

Furthermore  I think we can expect improvements from many players.  ECS was a significantly better hitter in Sep than he was in July/August.  Marte had a .542 OPS in August before turning it on in Sep. And he was just 21.  Elly struggled in the 2nd half, especially against LH and he was just 21, so he should get better.

Offense

The Reds are blessed to have an incredibly young, talented and cheap offense.  Marte, McLain, Steer, ECS and Elly were rookies.  Benson just missed rookie status. Friedl is pre-arb, Stephenson, India and Fraley will be ARB 1.  Senzel will be ARB 2.   
 
But there are some SEVERE splits against lefties/righties that simply can't be ignored.  And must factor into roster construction and lineups.

Fraley  - .815/.503
Benson - 938/.400
de la Cruz - .799/.444
Senzel - .497/1.008

Best Lineup Against RH  (with OPS)

Catcher - Luike Maile - .675
1b  - Encarnacion-Strand - .844
2b - McLain - .821
SS - de la Cruz .799
3b - Marte - .876
DH - Steer - .779
LF - Benson - .938
CF - Friedl - .785
RF - Fraley .815

That's a pretty potent lineup, with the worst non-catcher at .779, and everyone else higher.

Against righties you have to remove Benson, Fraley and (for now) Elly.

Best Lineup Against LH  (with OPS)

Catcher - Tyler Stephenson - .799
1b  - Encarnacion-Strand - .685
SS - McLain - .995
2b - Steer .928
3b - Marte - .684
DH - Maile - .750
LF -  Senzel - 1.008
CF - Friedl - .963
RF -  Fairchild -.700

You have to make some judgement calls especially with the younger guys as to whether these splits will hold up over time. ECS was over 1.000 OPS against LH in AAA. Marte was .839.  Elly was over 1.000. But his sample size in MLB was pretty big.  114 at bats.  Votto's was .897 driven by homers and walks, was 45 at bats. And was out of line with his career norms.  India was .642 against LH, but his career splits are almost even.

All in all it's not a bad lineup if you assume improvement from ECS and Marte.  Which I do.  I assume Elly will improve over .444 just because it's so horrendous.  And Elly can bring a lot of other things to the game with his speed etc.  You almost wonder if the right play (until he hits LH better) is to pinch run him in an early inning and leave him in.
 

So to me the task is to improve at a few spots against LH.  We need 2 more better RH. One of whom plays OF.  I show Maile at DH, even though I don't like catchers as DH.  Given our current lineup I'd probably go India at DH even though he only had .642 OPS. And Fairchild at .700. I don't believe that's an outlier.  To me improving over Fairchild is needed.

So that is need #1 - A platoon RH hitting OF to complement Senzel while platooning for Benson and Fraley.

So we have 13 offensive spots

1. C - TySteve
2. 1b - ECS
3. 2b - McLain
4. SS - Elly
5. 3b - Marte
6. LF - Benson
7. CF - Friedl
9. RF - Fraley

Backups/Platoon

10- C - Maile
11. OF - Senzel
12. RH OF Platoon Bat
13. LH Bat to replace Senzel in 9th.  (Votto or Martini)

Pitching - Starters

Reds have 6 MLB ready young good starters.  But they all have question marks.

1. Lodolo - When healthy our best starter, but missed most of last season
2. Ashcraft - Had a mid-season funk in May/June with approaching 10 !!  But April, July And August he was  2.10/1.84/3.03.  We need to have the depth and conviction to send him to AAA to work on things if he loses it.  But I don't expect him to have a repeat of the funk.
3. Abbott - Great first half. Second half ERA over 6.00.  Did they figure him out or was it fatigue?
4. Williamson - Seemed to have things figured out in July and August (2.45 and 3.67) bit then regressed in Sep 5.89. 
5. Greene - Tantalizes you with his potential and then gets hit and ends up mediocre.  Actually had worse ERA in 2023 than previous year.
6. Phillips - Great stuff but probably starts in AAA. Still just 22.

The Reds have a stable of starters that won't be MLB ready at start of 2024.  Petty, Richardson, Lowder, Aguiar, Floyd.

These guys could all be fantastic in 2024. But the odds are that at least one won't be, so having a stable, good starter added would be a good idea.  Ideally it would be a guy  for just a couple years. I'd love to see Sonny Gray but that probably won't happen.

Just don't sign a veteran question mark like Weaver.  If you're going to get someone.  Get someone good.

So tentatively I put our starters as

1. Lodolo
2. Ashcraft
3. Abbott
4. Greene
5. Williamson

Pitching - The Pen

Reds had a very solid pen in 2023. Here's what we have heading into 2024

1. Closer - Diaz 3.07 ERA.  But really tailed off 2nd half. 4.61 ERA in 2nd half. 3 options
2. Sims - 3.10 ERA  0 options
3. Gibaut - 3.33 ERA 0 options
4. Antone - 1.59 ERA - Arm health a concern  3 options
5. Moll (LH) - 0.73 ERA  1 option
6. Young (LH) - 3.86 ERA  1 option
7. Law -  3.50 ERA but 4.50 in 2nd half. Age 33   No options
8. Cruz - 4.91 ERA.  Would be incredibly effective then periodically get blown up. For example in Sept he had 2 games. 1 total inning, 8 runs. But he had a streak of 15 appearances and in 14 he gave up no runs.  Has 3 options left.

Others
Buck Farmer is a FA.  No options left.  will be 33.  4.91 ERA
Duarte - 3.69 ERA  2 options left. Walked nearly as many as he K's 23/20.
Legumina - 5.58 ERA. 2 options left.  Hard to tell if he has something because he was hurt a lot

We have a lot of "pitchability" guys. Guys who get thru because they are savvy and know how to pitch.  I'd like at least one more arm in that pen.  And I would prefer it to be a power arm.  A guy with stuff as opposed to savvy.

The cavalry's coming - The minors.

What do we have left in the minors to come up and rescue us?  It's a mixed bag. After promoting so many guys, there's now a bit of a gap with a lot of our talent presumably a year or more away.

Starters -

Phillips - If we assume Philips is not in the opening day rotation, then having him in AAA is a major plus, as he may very well be more talented than some of our current top 5. Gotta get walks under control. Just 22 years old.

Spiers - Hard to tell what we have in Spiers. He's 25 so coming into his prime. Had pretty damn good numbers in AA. Less hits than IP, way more K's than IP and a 2.5 K/BB ratio.  Jumped to majors and had 4 outings. Three were bad but his last was 3 shutout innings with 1 hit, 0 walks and a K.  He goes to AFL and has nice ERA (3.86) in tough environment with a crazy 16/1 K/BB ratio.  He should be in AAA. 

Richardson - Another guy we need to figure out. Started season in Low A after TJ and missing all of 2022. Dominated in Low A, skipped Dayton and dominated in AA.  Was a starter but never pitched more than 4 innings as they babied him. Struggled in MLB and AAA but last AAA outing was 3 hitless innings with 5 K's.  Will open season in AAA. I assume for now they keep him as a starter but should be behind Phillips and Spiers.

Petty - Still just 20 and barely touched AA so probably not a factor in 2024 unless it's very late.

Lowder - Against my advice, the Reds went for college pitching in 3 of their 4 first picks in the 2023 draft. (I'd have drafted Teel). But we ended up with whom many people consider to be the 2nd best pitcher in the draft behind Skenes. He's 21, will be 22 as season starts and will probably start in Dayton. I assume he will be a fast riser and possibly ready by end of year (but more likely in 2025).   The other 2 college draftees (Floyd and Hollan) were also shutdown and will probably also not factor into things before 2025.

The cavalry's coming - The minors.

Hitters - The bulk of our minor league hitting prospects are in High A and below.  There are some exceptions:

Arroyo - Generally considered our top remaining minor league prospect, Arroyo didn't turn 20 till August. He was good, not great in Dayton, putting up a .747 OPS with 13 homers and 29 steals. Had super brief look at AA at end of season so will almost certainly start there. Given his age and our stacked infield, there's little reason to suspect we'll see him in 2024.  If we do it's likely to be very late in year. 

The outfielders -

We need a RH bat to platoon with Fraley and Benson.  And we have 2 RH OF bats on the cusp, so that works out well. Hinds and Dunn. Hinds will be needed to be added to the 40 man roster, Dunn does not.

Hinds - Hinds missed 2020 like most guys, and had very average 2021 and 2022.   And by May 31 he looked like a bust hitting .204 with a .643 OPS in AA. But he made some swing adjustments (I think they said standing closer to the plate) and he took off. An incredible (1.247) June followed by .850 + every month after.  He hit 18 home runs after June 1.  I strongly suspect he'll be added to the 40 and start the season in AAA. If Reds are struggling to find offense against LH and he continues to hit, he could be a factor in 2024.  He also had 20 steals.

Dunn - A guy that came out of nowhere. A 15th rounder in 2021, Dunn did little in 2022 with the exception of some steals to suggest he would break out in 2023 but he certainly did.  He split time between Dayton and Chattanooga. He put up a .947 OPS with 23 homers and 54 steals and was better in AA than High A.  I also would expect him in AAA.  He does NOT have to be added to the 40.  Like Hinds, if he continues to dominate and we have issues, he could be a factor in 2024. He was named our Minor League Player of the Year.

Hurtubise - Hurtubise is WAY different than the other 2.  He's a LH hitter. He has little power. He can't hit lefties at all .184 average.  So what's the attraction?  First of all speed.  He stole 45 bases.  Secondly he's an OBP machine.  Even Joey Votto thinks he walks too much. In AA against RH he put up a .337 average, .480 OBP and 1.047 OPS.  And he was even better in a short sample size in AAA. He needs to be protected in Rule 5. I certainly hope he will be.  If I was another team I'd grab him in a heartbeat.  He'd be very easy to carry on a ML roster.  He should start the season in AAA but could have a niche role on Reds going forward.

The cavalry's coming - The minors.

Relievers

Here's where the cabinet is bare or at least cloudy. Salazar failed for us.  Salazar, Heatherly, Karcher and Sandridge are all eligible for minor league free agency.  Moore has been inconsistent.

So we don't need much in the majors in relief, but we do need to find the next level of talent.

The Conclusion:

So, what should we do in the off-season?  Not much. less is more.  I suggest we mostly tweak things. Specifically:

1. Obtain a good starter that would be available for one or 2 years. We are overloaded with young, cheap, starters in our system. Two former Reds make a ton of sense.  Sonny Gray however is probably going to want a 5 year deal, which really makes little sense for us.  But Wade Miley makes a TON of sense. He's still pitching well, I think there is mutual respect, he's 36, he signed a one year, 4.5 million dollar deal last year so a 1 year 8 million dollar deal might look pretty good. Bridge the gap until guys like Lowder are ready,

2. Obtain a hard throwing reliever. My target is Jordan Hicks.  Might be a little expensive but he's young (28), and he throws hard. If you want to throw a 5 year deal at him that's fine.

3. Obtain a platoon RH OF hitter. Keep Senzel.  A one year or two deal for Robbie Grossman seems perfect. He hit .952 against LH last year, .879 and .857 the previous 2.  He's 34 so not likely to get long term deal with anyone.

So recapping the Reds off-season.  Am I pretty happy?  Yes.  Because Reds were already the favorite to win the division and Krall lost ZERO prospects.  And there were crazy proposals out there. People suggesting trading 4/5 top prospects for Dylan Cease who had a 4.58 ERA and in 5 seasons of pitching has had only 1 year with an ERA of 3.90 or less.

The current Reds are where they are to a great deal by trading vets for prospects: Netting us Steer, ECS, Marte, Fraley, Williamson, Phillips, Petty, Arroyo.
 
So trading prospects away would have been the exact opposite.  Like Hippocrates said:  First do no harm.  That's what Krall did.  Improved the team while trading no prospects.

Actions:

Let Joey walk. Had to be done. And I'm still not to opposed to him coming back as a late inning sub.

I said they need a one year deal on a starter. I suggested Wade Miley. Instead we got Montas as a FA, who did not cost us a prospect or a draft choice. He might net us a draft choice if he has a big year and goes Free Agent (after turning down a Qualifying Offer).  And there's a possibility that he could be dealt at trade deadline if he doing well but is our 4th or 5th best starter.  Either way he should be a "One and done".  But good work by Krall.

I said we need a strong arm in the pen. I suggested Jordan Hicks and thought he might need a 5 year deal.  He got 4 for $44 million. Glad we didn't go there.  Instead Krall signed 2 free agents: Nick Martinez to a 2 year deal (opt out after 1). 26 million, 14 mill and then 12 mill.  And Emlio Pagan for 2 years, 16 million.  So Reds paid for some quality arms. 22 million for this season.  But we had plenty of cash and again Krall traded no prospects or draft choices.  And we didn't sign long term deals.

Then I suggested the Reds keep Senzel as platoon player and pick up another RH platoon partner. I suggested Robbie Grossman.  I didn't state it in this thread but I assumed India would be gone.

Instead the Reds traded India for Senzel. The hope is that India can play OF. That means the Reds trade someone unhappy to be in Cincy for someone who is very happy in Cincy. That means we still needed a RH platoon partner and that turns out to be Steer because......

The Reds/Krall made one weird head scratching move. On a team over-loaded with infielders, the Reds signed a 3 year, 45 million dollar deal with Jeimer Candelario who's an infielder. And he's a solid ballplayer but nothing special. He has a career OPS of .739.  in 2023, his "big year" he OPS'd .807.  In 2022 it was .633. So, because of his contract Bell is going to play him A LOT.  This one could be a bad deal for the Reds. Let's hope it's not.  I'd have paid him 5 mill or so for 1 year.

Where does that leave us lineup-wise?

Starters
1. Lodolo
2. Ashcraft
3. Greene
4. Montas
5. Abbott

(Could vary. Leaves us with Williamson, Phillips, Richardson, Spiers, Roa in AAA. Petty in AA)

Relievers
1. Diaz (CL)
2. Martinez
3. Pagan
4. Suter (L)
5. Farmer
6. Gibaut
7. Sims
8. Moll (L) 

I think that means guys with options go to AAA (Antone, Cruz, Young) even though they should not be. 

Krall has built incredible pitching depth.

Offense
Against LH
1b - CES
2b - McLain
3b - Marte
SS - Elly
CF - Friedl
RF - Fraley
LF - Benson
DH - Candy

Against LH
1b - CES
2b - McLain
3b - Marte
SS - Elly
CF - Friedl
RF - India
LF - Steer
DH - Candy

A lot of flexibility here. TySteve and Maile are both righties so they can go either way. If TySteve doesn't bounce back, I'd use Maile more against RH and TySteve against LH.  That leaves one open roster spot and I'd probably for now give it to Fairchild, since both Steer and India will be at best adequate defensively.

How does the pipeline look?   Strong on pitching side a little farther away on the hitting side

We may have the following guys as starters waiting in the wings: Williamson, Phillips, Richardson, Petty, Aguilar. With guys like Lowder, Floyd, Schwoenwetter, And Serwinoskli just starting out. We are set at starter.

Relivers: A little less solid (after the fact that we'll have guys like Cruz, Antone, Young in AAA.).  The next wave of young guys are pinned to hope on guys like Maxwell. But it could mean that some guys like Richardson make the transition.

Hitters:  In the top leagues ready to go we have Hinds, and Dunn.  Both are question marks in that they have not had sustained success and not done it at AAA. Arroyo has not done it at AA and has not yet put together a full season of work.  Most of our big prospect bats are in High A or lower:  Stewart, Collier, Rodriguez, Jorge, Cabrera, Duno, Balcazar.

That's why when we draft #2 this year we need to draft the best college hitter we can find and preferably an OF. This guy will probably be on the Reds in 2025 so pick someone that fits.