Your Cincinnati Reds 2023 Rotation and fixing the rest of the team

Here's your rotation for 2023 and the next 5 years.

Age they'll be at start of 2023

1. Greene (23)
2. Lodolo  (25)
3. Abbott (23)
4. Ashcraft (25)
5. Boyle  (23)

Ashcraft is in AAA, Abbott just got promoted to AA and Boyle is in High A.  He pitches tonight (5/17), If he dominates I hope he gets bumped up to AA afterwards.

6th Man - Overton.  I (perhaps over-optimistically) think Overton can be at least a decent #5 starter.

The beauty of going to this rotation is that they will all be in the beginnings of their career and be at or near league minimum.  Imagine a starting rotation costing a total of less than 5 million.  They could be intact for the next 5-6 years before you have to worry about replacing them.

The people doing the draft post-Buckley has concentrated on college pitchers and now it's coming to fruition. There's a backup, less successful (so far) college group also.

Williamson (Acquired in Winker trade)
Farr
Bonin
Roa

So, if that's the rotation, you now have a lot of trade bait and cap space to fix the offense.......

Fixing the offense

The Reds have a real problem on offense because you have 9 slots to fill and you are only set at three. And not much in the near pipeline (unlike starters) coming up.

Catcher - Set with Stephenson. The caveat is that he might have to move to 1b because of concussions.
1b - Votto will be done soon. Heck he might be done now. But best case scenario he is done after 2023.
2b - Set with India
SS - Going out on a limb here and saying set with Barerro. The thinking is he hit very well at AAA last year, so he'll succeed in majors even though he has not so far.
3b - Not set. Drury looks like he can be a decent fill in while you wait for someone else.
LF - Not set - Pham is just okay and is 34
Cf - Not set - Senzel has never lived up to his potential. We thought he would, we hoped he would, but he has not. He'll still have a chance as soon as he comes off Dl.
RF - Not set - Naquin is 31, cheap and effective against RH. So like Drury, effective until you find the long term guy. But he's a free agent at end of year.
DH - Not set. At best Moose continues his hot streak and he is passable for next 2 years.

So what impact bats do we have coming thru the system quickly to solve our hitting problems?  Not much. 

We have last years #1 Matt McLain at AA, He's got an .919 OPS driven by HRs and walks, but is hitting .248 and has 36% strikeout rate.  He is playing SS, which we are assuming will be played by Barrero. So if he succeeds, he or someone else changes position. He goes to 3b. Or CF.  Or 2b and India goes to 3b. if he hits.... we have plenty of openings.

We have Mike Siani - Defensive CF extraordinaire. Finally hit a bit at Az Fall Fall League last year, and has kept it up this year. 285 Avg  .366 OBP 13 Sb's. If he can hit, he can be CF. Even if Senzel rebounds, Senzel could move elsewhere in OF.

That's about it. Everyone else is High A or below.

So the answer is trade Castillo and Mahle for major league ready hitters. Hopefully some studs right on the verge of the majors. Fill those offensive voids with our excess of starting pitching.  Castillo in particular should be in demand and should be able to gather some talent.

With Castillo, Mahle, and Minor out of the rotation you clear up 22 million of 2022 salaries that are now available to use for acquiring hitters. Another 39 million comes off the books at the end of 2023 with Votto and Moose.   Shogo's 8 million comes off after this year.

That's over 68 million per year to deploy in less than 2 years on the offense. Add 7 million more if you assume Pham is gone in 2 years.

And since the core of your team is pre-arb  (Stephenson, India, Barerro, The entire rotation), you shouldn't have to pay a lot in arb cases for next couple years.

The bullpen looks to be pretty solid over next 2-3 years

1. Diaz
2. Solomon
3. Warren
4. Sims
5. Cessa
6. Antone

With a bunch of guys who might be solid
1. Kuhnel
2. Santillan
3. Gutierrez

So you trade for offensive talent to fill holes, and you sign some talent in free agency to fill some holes.  The last step? Unless I am absolutely blown away by a HS hitter, or a college pitcher....

And I do mean blown away, Jim Callas and the guys on MLB have to be saying "it's unbelievable he's still on the board".

Unless blown away you take a college bat with the first pick in this year draft.

(PS - Under no circumstances do you take a HS pitcher #1)

Two minor increments....   Joe Boyle had another dominant performance in Dayton and Ashcraft added to taxi squad (long with Motter).

Today is big step towards the 2023 lineup as we get our first chance to see how Graham Ashcraft's stuff plays at the big league level.

Ashcraft looked good. The plan is on track.

More progress towards this as Joe Boyle throws 6 no hit innings in Dayton. For the love of god, move him to AA!!

Boyle not promoted yet. Abbott had his 2nd consecutive mediocre game.

Bell names Ashcraft as a "permanent" member of the rotation and he is added to 40 man roster. He responds by pitching 6.1 shutout innings.

Spurred by the Bell announcement that Dunn (the forgotten man) would be coming back as a starter, let's see where everything stands

2023 Rotation - Ashcraft and Greene seem to have solidified their parts.  Lodolo getting closer to coming back, Boyle still in High A and still dominating. He needs to be promoted! But Abbott has been just fair at AA.  Now add Dunn to the mix along with Overton. Abbott and Williamson now have exactly the same ERA in AA  (3.81).  Bonin on the IL with shoulder impingement. That could be very bad.

Bullpen has hit some struggles. But keep in mind that we are missing some big arms.  Next year we should be looking at Antone, Sims, Diaz, Kuhnel, Cessa, Hoffman, Warren. And guys like Gutierrez, Santillan, Sanmartin (just switched to relief). Solomon has seriously regressed.

Offense - Stephenson hurt again because he is a catcher. Votto has had a good 3 weeks. Moose has not. Barrero struggling in his AAA start. Siani and McLain's number have gown down in the (almost) month since this was posted.

In other words... there is absolutely NOTHING to indicate this should not be the plan going forward and the Dunn announcement shows that Mahle/Castillo trade(s) are coming.

Three week update.....

Starting pitching for 2023
Greene and Ashcraft have taken steps back recently. Still no reason to believe they will not be in rotation in 2023
Lodolo will be activated tomorrow. Should be a lock for 2023 rotation.
Abbott has hit the wall at AA. Unless something drastic happens he will not be in rotation in 2023
Boyle is still pitching phenomenally well in High A. Have no idea why he is still there. Could still factor in if they move him soon and he dominates.

Other candidates
Seems to be that Williamson is targeted for the bigs because he is getting promoted without results.
Dunn is joining the rotation soon. At this point, giving that he is under contract for next few years pencil him in.
Overton. Don't forget about the guy with the sub 2.00 ERA.

Bullpen

The bullpen situation has gone to hell in a handbasket.  Let's be optimistic and talk about next year
1. Antone (being optimistic)
2. Sims (Optimistic)
3. Santillan
4. Gutierrez
5. Hoffman
6. Diaz
7. Warren  (bounce back)
8. Cessa  (bounce back)

Choices 7 and 8 were a little iffy. We have a lot of flotsam with Kuhnel, Hendrix, Sanmartin, Moreta, Solomon some of whom might still turn out to be ok. Some other guys we've hardly seen like Duarte. An interesting name in AA with Spencer Stockton.

Offense -

The sad sack outlook on offense has gotten worse.
We said we are set at 2b, and we probably are but India has not hit well at all since coming off injury.  I know he started slowly last year too.
And Barrero is not hitting at AAA. So we may be looking at Farmer again barring some change.

Well, well well. How the turntables have.....

3 months ago I proposed that the way to fix the Reds for 2023 was to trade Castillo and Mahle for hitting, and use salary savings to acquire offense.  The Reds came pretty close to doing what I proposed.  Let's recap where we stand mid-August

1. The Reds did trade Castillo and Mahle. Primarily for hitting. There were three college pitchers.  Hajjar is in Dayton. Stoudt is in AAA, and Moore in Daytona. So only Stoudt would appear to be a possible contributor to start 2023.
2. The hitting they got (which seems solid) was primarily lower level talent. But not exclusively. We got Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the Mahle deal. Steer is in AAA has hit 22 homers this season after hitting 24 in 2021. He looks to be more the solid starter type rather than the star type. But it looks like he could fill in at any moment.  Would almost certainly factor into 2023 equation somewhere. 

Christian Encarnacion-Strand is in AA and has hit 27 homers this year, his first full season after being drafted in 2021.  He does not have to be added to the 40 man roster in 2023, but you figure he will be at some point if he continues to hit. I think his ceiling is higher than Steer's, and he plays third and maybe first. And he's RH.

So getting 2 offensive upgrades for 2023 qualifies as a "plus".

3. I said only draft a HS hitter or college pitcher if one falls you and the announcers can't believe it. And that's pretty much what happened with Cam Collier. So as great as it is to have him, he won't be helping anytime soon.  My problem with the 2022 draft is with the picks after Collier and before Hubbart (3rd).  We needed College hitters.  You better REALLY hit on Stewart (HS kid), because I bet you there were some college guys that will be impact bats that were available.

In theory Logan Tanner is exactly what we need.  A College catcher. A position of dire need. But there were questions about his hit tool.  We did draft another College catcher in Round 5 that serves as an insurance policy.  And then we drafted a college OF in Competitive Balamce Round B, Boyd, but there are indications Reds reached.