September Questions we need answered

1. Will Steer show enough (and get enough chances) for him to force himself onto the 26 man roster for 2023. And what would the fallout be if that happens?
2. Is Cessa actually a starting pitcher option for 2023?  Or are they just killing innings for 2022? We need 2 starters behind the Big 3. Lately it looks like Dunn might be grabbing slot #4.  Could Cessa be #5?
3. Likewise will we ever see Overton again in 2022? In 4 starts he had the best ERA of ANY starter on the Reds.  Was it smoke and mirrors as some suggest, or a career turnaround? It would be great to see another couple starts before 2023.
4. Will the latest stance changes from Aquino and Barrero make a difference in their hitting? Aquino is fighting for a 40 man roster spot in the off-season, while Barerro will likely find himself in AAA in 2023 if nothing changes.
5. Who is the real Jake Fraley? When he came back from IL he was one of the hottest hitters in baseball.  Now he's cooled off again. He can't hit lefties at all. .091 average. But most starters are righties. Can he be the platoon starter?
6. Likewise is the new TJ Friedl for real? He's hot as firecracker right now. And (in 15 at bats) he HAS hit lefties so far.
7. Does Mike Siani force his way into the conversation for the 2023 outfield?  With his recent hot streak he now has 12 homers, 45 SB's and offers spectacular OF defense. He has pretty even splits against lefties.
8. Does Fairchild offer us anything? Let's imagine a 2023 outfield of Friedl, Siani and Fraley. All lefties. And Fraley can't hit lefties. A competent RH Fairchild would come in handy in a platoon.   
9. Will TJ Hopkins start to factor in?  He needs to be protected in Rule 5 and he's a borderline candidate right now. Recently promoted to AAA in very limited at bats (23) he has an OPS over 1.000.  18 homers now on the season.  He could be a RH platoon.  (Although he's not bad against RH).
10. Do Albert Almora and Nick Senzel have any role on this team going forward?  Almora is a Free Agent. I assume won't be too expensive. Plays good (great) defense but doesn't hit much at all. Senzel is second year arb eligible so is likely to cost $3 million or so.  He also doesn't hit at all. He does offer super-sub capability in both infield and outfield. But I suspect Senzel doesn't see himself as a bench player. He's represented by Boras, so unlikely to sign a cheap pre-tender offer.
11. Who separates themselves from the bullpen logjam?  Right now the Reds have a whole slew of decent but not great relievers. And we just added 2 more recently in Cruz and Law.
12. Can Elly de la Cruz put up such a dominant September that he forces himself into the opening day 2023 conversation?  (As he should be)

1. Will Steer show enough (and get enough chances) for him to force himself onto the 26 man roster for 2023. And what would the fallout be if that happens?  So far, Steer is just holding his own. Not enough to force the Reds hand.
2. Is Cessa actually a starting pitcher option for 2023?  Or are they just killing innings for 2022? We need 2 starters behind the Big 3. Lately it looks like Dunn might be grabbing slot #4.  Could Cessa be #5? Cessa is looking like a starter so far. Based on what I'm seeing I'd have no problem with him as #5
3. Likewise will we ever see Overton again in 2022? In 4 starts he had the best ERA of ANY starter on the Reds.  Was it smoke and mirrors as some suggest, or a career turnaround? It would be great to see another couple starts before 2023. It appears we might see Overton in relief in AAA in a few days.
4. Will the latest stance changes from Aquino and Barrero make a difference in their hitting? Aquino is fighting for a 40 man roster spot in the off-season, while Barerro will likely find himself in AAA in 2023 if nothing changes. So far the stance change has worked for Aquino. So much so that I would keep him on the 40 right now. Barrero's has not made a difference. he made the change Aug 31. He's hitting .136 in September.
5. Who is the real Jake Fraley? When he came back from IL he was one of the hottest hitters in baseball.  Now he's cooled off again. He can't hit lefties at all. .091 average. But most starters are righties. Can he be the platoon starter?  Right now he looks like he's a platoon starter for sure.
6. Likewise is the new TJ Friedl for real? He's hot as firecracker right now. And (in 15 at bats) he HAS hit lefties so far. Friedl has stayed hot. But Bell has nor played him much against lefties
7. Does Mike Siani force his way into the conversation for the 2023 outfield?  With his recent hot streak he now has 12 homers, 45 SB's and offers spectacular OF defense. He has pretty even splits against lefties.  Siani has stayed hot
8. Does Fairchild offer us anything? Let's imagine a 2023 outfield of Friedl, Siani and Fraley. All lefties. And Fraley can't hit lefties. A competent RH Fairchild would come in handy in a platoon.   Very little chances in Sept so far but just 1/5
9. Will TJ Hopkins start to factor in?  He needs to be protected in Rule 5 and he's a borderline candidate right now. Recently promoted to AAA in very limited at bats (23) he has an OPS over 1.000.  18 homers now on the season.  He could be a RH platoon.  (Although he's not bad against RH).  Hopkins has cooled in September
10. Do Albert Almora and Nick Senzel have any role on this team going forward?  Almora is a Free Agent. I assume won't be too expensive. Plays good (great) defense but doesn't hit much at all. Senzel is second year arb eligible so is likely to cost $3 million or so.  He also doesn't hit at all. He does offer super-sub capability in both infield and outfield. But I suspect Senzel doesn't see himself as a bench player. He's represented by Boras, so unlikely to sign a cheap pre-tender offer. Almora is on rehab in AAA but hasn't done much there. And Senzel continues to struggle. Hitting .154 in September.
11. Who separates themselves from the bullpen logjam?  Right now the Reds have a whole slew of decent but not great relievers. And we just added 2 more recently in Cruz and Law. No one has really separated themselves at this point, good or bad.
12. Can Elly de la Cruz put up such a dominant September that he forces himself into the opening day 2023 conversation?  (As he should be) Cruz has had a bad week to start Sept.

September and October (and the season) are over.  What were the answer to our questions?


1. Will Steer show enough (and get enough chances) for him to force himself onto the 26 man roster for 2023. And what would the fallout be if that happens? No, Steer did no force his way into a roster spot for 2023. At this point he looks like a guy that will bounce between AAA and the majors in 2023.
2. Is Cessa actually a starting pitcher option for 2023?  Or are they just killing innings for 2022? We need 2 starters behind the Big 3. Lately it looks like Dunn might be grabbing slot #4.  Could Cessa be #5? Cessa did better than Dunn. In September he had a 3.94 ERA and in 1 start in October it was 1.80. I'd have ZERO problems slotting Cessa in to #5 slot. In contrast Dunn had a ERA over 10 in 2 starts and hurt his shoulder again. he has an option left I believe. He would be AAA depth for me.
3. Likewise will we ever see Overton again in 2022? In 4 starts he had the best ERA of ANY starter on the Reds.  Was it smoke and mirrors as some suggest, or a career turnaround? It would be great to see another couple starts before 2023. Overton came back for 2 tandem relief appearances, He got roughed up a bit in the first but in the second he pitched 5.1 innings of shutout ball. He should be penciled in as #4. Better ERA than Castillo.
4. Will the latest stance changes from Aquino and Barrero make a difference in their hitting? Aquino is fighting for a 40 man roster spot in the off-season, while Barerro will likely find himself in AAA in 2023 if nothing changes. No they did not. Aquino had a brief flurry but his last 15 games were .167 with .224 OBP.  It's over. Barrero was even worse. He should be penciled in to AAA for 2023 to see if he can be salvaged.
5. Who is the real Jake Fraley? When he came back from IL he was one of the hottest hitters in baseball.  Now he's cooled off again. He can't hit lefties at all. .091 average. But most starters are righties. Can he be the platoon starter? Absolutely.  Fraley continued to have a strong September and should start every day against righties.[/b]
6. Likewise is the new TJ Friedl for real? He's hot as firecracker right now. And (in 15 at bats) he HAS hit lefties so far. A little undecided. He cooled off in September a bit. But he has certainly earned a 26 man roster spot for 223.
7. Does Mike Siani force his way into the conversation for the 2023 outfield?  With his recent hot streak he now has 12 homers, 45 SB's and offers spectacular OF defense. He has pretty even splits against lefties.Siani got activated when Senzel got hurt but showed he was overmatched in limited duty.  AAA for next year.[/b]
8. Does Fairchild offer us anything? Let's imagine a 2023 outfield of Friedl, Siani and Fraley. All lefties. And Fraley can't hit lefties. A competent RH Fairchild would come in handy in a platoon.   He was pretty competent. Even though he cooled off the last couple weeks. Barring acquisitions, I'd have him on the 26.  Way above Aquino.
9. Will TJ Hopkins start to factor in?  He needs to be protected in Rule 5 and he's a borderline candidate right now. Recently promoted to AAA in very limited at bats (23) he has an OPS over 1.000.  18 homers now on the season.  He could be a RH platoon.  (Although he's not bad against RH). Hopkins cooled considerably and probably took himself out of 40 Man roster competition. .216 BA with sub .300 OBP and .767 OPS in September. He's very streaky.
10. Do Albert Almora and Nick Senzel have any role on this team going forward?  Almora is a Free Agent. I assume won't be too expensive. Plays good (great) defense but doesn't hit much at all. Senzel is second year arb eligible so is likely to cost $3 million or so.  He also doesn't hit at all. He does offer super-sub capability in both infield and outfield. But I suspect Senzel doesn't see himself as a bench player. He's represented by Boras, so unlikely to sign a cheap pre-tender offer.  Almora was released. Senzel struggled again in September. It's time to move on. We can probably find a team that will give him a chance for a scratch off lottery tix
11. Who separates themselves from the bullpen logjam?  Right now the Reds have a whole slew of decent but not great relievers. And we just added 2 more recently in Cruz and Law. Most of the pen had a pretty good last month. Hell even Strickland was good. Cruz in particular who had a 0.82 ERA. You'd assume that would make him a lock for consideration on the 2023 pen, but Reds do crazy things sometimes. The big loser would appear to be Kuhnel who closed out 2022 pretty badly. And Warren who after a pretty good August got hit hard for a couple games, got sent down and then hurt his elbow.
12. Can Elly de la Cruz put up such a dominant September that he forces himself into the opening day 2023 conversation?  (As he should be) He had a really nice September.  But not up to "Elly" standards, so he has probably not written himself into 2023 plans for Reds.  (Although he should be)

Final?  Updates to the 13 questions........ Art Warren had UCL surgery and although it was not a full TJ it is expected to knock him out for 2023. If I was running the Reds I would drop him from the 40 and see if we can get him re-signed to a minor league deal.  That way we can decide in one year whether to add him to the 40.   But 40 man roster slots are at a premium and I would not use one on Warren this year.

Stop me if you've heard this before but Elly de la cruz is dominating Winter Ball. In 49 at bats for Lucey he has an OPS over 1.000. And after a 2 homer game, Aquino has raised his average to .128 with a .552 OPS.